Why Israel Will Strike Iran

I’ll save you the suspense. Israel is going to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in three months.

Of late, many have been discussing the virtues, challenges, risks, and potential consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran. Depending who you ask, a preemptive attack is an absolute necessity, the lesser of two evils, unwise, or reckless.

Unfortunately, no well-informed and intellectually honest individual could say that they know
the right course of action. There are rational arguments on all sides of this debate, but I’m not going to discuss why I think Israel should or shouldn’t attack. I’m going to tell you why they will attack. It’s already a done deal.

First, Israeli leaders believe that a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to Israel and the Israeli public agrees. 90% think Iran is building nuclear weapons and 43% of the country support a military strike. Israeli leaders genuinely believe that they have a responsibility to keep the Jewish people safe and take a threat of this magnitude very seriously. The phrase “Never Again” isn’t just rhetoric and Israeli leaders aren’t just posturing when they say that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable.

Second, Israeli leaders know that world powers will not stop Iran. Israeli warnings have been ignored for nearly a decade. The sanctions being imposed today may have had an impact, if they had been instituted when Israel first sounded the alarm. For Israelis, it’s too little too late. By time sanctions take full effect in July, the Iranian nuclear program will be so deep underground that even the world’s most powerful munitions may not be able to reach it. The Israelis know that the US is not going to attack Iran. The US fears an increase in Iranian-sponsored attacks on US forces in the Middle East more than they fear a nuclear armed Iran. Israel knows that it is on its own and its people are OK with that.

Third, Israeli citizens are willing and able to face the repercussions of an attack on Iran. The Israeli public has demonstrated tremendous resiliency in the face of daily missile and terror attacks. Even though Israelis rightly expect that thousands of missiles will be launched from Lebanon and Gaza, Hezbollah and Hamas might not attack. Hezbollah and Hamas know they will pay a heavy political price for instigating devastation on Lebanon and Gaza just to please Iran. Both terror organizations have restrained themselves over the last five years because they each lost power and influence after the last time they picked a fight with Israel. They know another attack on Israel will further diminish their power at home. In any event, Israeli leaders aren’t letting concerns about a Hezbollah and Hamas retaliation impact their decision because they know the Israeli public will endure the repercussions of a strike on Iran.

Fourth, Israelis like proving that every challenge can be overcome. As with Iran today, many experts believed that Israel could not destroy the Iraqi Osirak nuclear plant. It was deemed too far and complicated given the distance and Israel’s resources. Israel gleefully proved them wrong. Syria used one of the world’s most sophisticated anti-aircraft systems to protect its secret nuclear facility. In 2007, Israel essentially found the defense system’s off switch and destroyed the facility in minutes. Iranian facilities are highly distributed and much better protected than anything the Israeli military has encountered before, but Israeli planners will come up with an innovative solution to the problem. They always do. Only time will tell if it works, but Israeli leaders will believe that success is possible and that will give them the confidence needed to authorize IDF commanders to strike.

Fifth, Israeli security depends on a strong deterrence. Israel makes the price of attacking it so high that its enemies think twice before attacking again. This deterrence is the reason why Arab nations stopped conducting all-out wars with Israel. In 1973, when Israel overcame the surprise attack and decimated the Arab armies, the Arab nations finally understood that attacking Israel was a pointless exercise. This is why Sadat came to Israel and signed a peace agreement. Hamas and Hezbollah have been restraining themselves since their last fight with Israel. A successful attack on Iran – especially if it also includes effective operations against Hezbollah and Hamas – will significantly strengthen Israeli deterrence. Israeli leaders also recognize that they have been talking about the Iranian threat and Israel’s readiness to preemptively strike for years. If Israel does nothing and Iran builds a nuclear weapon, Israel will appear weak in a neighborhood where weakness is a cardinal sin. Israeli leaders know inaction will lead to a surge in attacks from the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon and perhaps even Egypt and Jordan.

Israelis see the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat, they know that the world community will not stop the Iranians, they believe they have a way to accomplish the mission, see themselves as being prepared for the backlash, and predict that the price of failing to act is much higher than the price of taking action. For these reasons, Israel will attack the Iranian nuclear facilities.

Given the timelines leaked to the media, it looks like Israel will strike in the next three months. To those Israeli soldiers who are participating in the operation, I wish god’s speed, good luck, and a safe return home. For those Israeli citizens who will likely bear the brunt of the storm that follows, make room for one more – unless, of course, I can be of use by donning a uniform again.

Harnessing The Arab Spring To Solve The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Israeli and Palestinian leaders have been negotiating for seventeen years, but they are no closer to a peace agreement today than they were on May 4th, 1994 when Israel let the PLO set up a proto-state in the West Bank and Gaza.

Israeli and Palestinian leaders have tried direct negotiations, US-led negotiations, and multinational negotiations that have included the US, EU, Russia, and the UN. The Palestinians and Israelis have both tried the use of force. They have both taken unilateral steps.

The failure of these approaches has been inevitable because the Palestinians don’t feel like the magnitude of their experience or the scope of their aspirations is being fully addressed.

At the same time, Israelis have good reason to believe that the Palestinians are still not ready to accept the legitimacy of Israel as the rightful homeland of the Jewish people. Despite this concern, the Israeli people and the last five Israeli Prime Ministers, including Benjamin Netanyahu, have all been ready to make a deal.

Israeli leaders have put forth a number of plans that essentially give Palestinians full control and statehood over 97% of the West Bank. Israel has asked for the 3%, where the vast majority of Israeli settlements can be found. In exchange, Israel gives the Palestinians 3% of undisputed Israeli territory to physically connect the West Bank and Gaza into a unified state. Even on Jerusalem, successive Israeli governments have shown willingness to draw the border between Israel and Palestine in ways that would enable both sides to claim Jerusalem as their capital.

When Israelis ask themselves why Palestinian leaders refuse to accept negotiated terms that seem reasonable to them, the EU, and the US, they typically assume that the Palestinian simply don't want genuine peace with Israel. I’ve certainly thought that and it very well may be true. The continuous Palestinian state-sponsored incitement against Jews and their leadership’s official celebration of individuals who murder children makes it hard to argue that they seek peace.

Even so, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict isn’t going to solve itself or become easier to manage by trying to wait it out. Part of the problem is that Israel has never been – and never will be – in a position to fully satisfy the needs of the Palestinian people. The West Bank and Gaza really isn’t enough. They need and deserve Amman too.

While the world celebrates the fall of Arab dictators like Mubarak and Gaddafi, world leaders sit down for lunch with Jordanian King Abdullah II. Abdullah II is much more congenial than Bashar Assad, the Syrian dictator who has hired Iranian and Hezbollah thugs to kill civilians, but the two have a lot in common. They both rely on security services to remain in power and lead a small minority tribe that rules over a majority.In Syria, the Allawi tribe is 10% of the total population. In Jordan, the Bedouin tribe is 20% of the total population. 80% of Jordanians self-identify as Palestinian.

This comes as no surprise given that Churchill “created Jordan with the stroke of a pen one Sunday afternoon” in 1921 to reward Abdullah Hussein for his support during World War I. The British made him King and the Bedouin minority have been ruling over the Palestinian majority ever since.

The Palestinians call the war waged against Israel’s existence in 1948 “The Catastrophe,” but the greatest blow to their national aspirations actually occurred in 1921 when Britain gave away 70% of their land to Abdullah. Today, there are more Palestinians living in Jordan than in the West Bank.

No one wants to pressure Jordan’s King Abdullah II to abdicate. Other Arab dictators believe it will accelerate their own departure from power. U.S. and European leaders don’t want to dismantle a relatively stable and friendly Arab nation, especially during a particularly tumultuous period in the Middle East. Of course, the same could have been said about Mubarak before the US government decided to take away some of his few remaining lifelines.

From the Israeli perspective, the Jordanian monarchy has been relatively non-belligerent for decades and they don’t want to rock the boat. Palestinians remain publically quiet regarding their historic claims to Jordan. In time, we’ll see the extent by which they are biding their time until the conflict with Israel is resolved.

The Jordanian monarchy will eventually fall. The Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Syria demonstrate that it’s inevitable, especially given the Jordanian lack of legitimacy and its lack of the economic resources needed to hold onto power. The Saudis can buy their people’s love. The Jordanians can barely afford to buy their people a stick of gum. It is just a question of time.

Regional and world powers must decide whether they want to proactively enable an orderly transition in Jordan that has a positive impact on the region or face the chaos, risk, and uncertainty that will result from the inevitable overthrow of the Jordanian monarchy.

Including Jordan as part of the final settlement with Israel won’t replace the need for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations over core issues like Jerusalem, the West Bank, Gaza, and the Palestinian diaspora. Extreme right wing elements in Israel have talked about transferring Palestinians to Jordan. No Israeli leader has endorsed this concept and a vast majority of Israelis reject this approach out of hand.

I am not suggesting deportations or population transfers. I am suggesting that the Palestinians be given full authority over both the West and East Bank (Jordan) as well as Gaza. The Palestinians still get the vast majority of the West Bank and Gaza as envisioned in prior negotiations with Israel. They just also get Jordan too.

Widening the vision of peace to include Palestinian sovereignty over Jordan is the best way to narrow the gap between what the Palestinians want and what they will receive. It won’t diminish the desire of many Palestinians to return to villages left in 1948, but the sheer size and potential of a Palestinian state that is nearly five times the size of Israel should enable the vast majority of Palestinians to feel like they are receiving a fair deal.

World leaders have pressured Mubarak, Gaddafi, and Assad to abdicate power without having a clear understanding of the day-after impact on Egypt, Libya, Syria, and the region as a whole. In the instance of Jordan, the impact on the region is clear, controllable, and transformative.

Abdullah II recently said he’d step down if he experienced the kind of resistance Bashar Assad currently faces in Syria. He has opened the door for the kind of discussion that needs to take place between world leaders and Jordan.

If world leaders actually believe that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is critical to achieving stability in the region and think that it will reduce the rationale for global Islamic terrorism, then they must pressure King Abdullah II to abdicate power in Jordan and enable a handoff of sovereignty to the Palestinians as part of a comprehensive peace deal with Israel.

It will increase the viability of a Palestinian state and help end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The sooner that happens, the better life will be for Palestinians, Israelis, the Middle East, and the world.